Analyst Wood Mackenzie has predicted soaring demand for electric vehicle devices will ensure supply will not keep pace with demand until some point in 2023.

Lithium iron phosphate batteries will overhaul nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) devices in 2028 and electric vehicle (EV) battery demand will continue to outstrip supply until next year, according to analyst Wood Mackenzie.

Pointing to EV battery shortages last year, prompted by rampant demand and rising raw material costs, WoodMac consultant Jiayue Zheng today predicted the vehicle market which accounts for almost 80% of current battery demand will amount to 3TWh of device storage capacity by the end of the decade.

The US-owned analyst issued a press release today in which it predicted European battery manufacturers will overhaul their North American rivals this year as global storage companies plan to develop 300 sites with a total of more than 5.5TWh of annual manufacturing capacity by 2030.

The 90% share of global device manufacturing held by Asia-Pacific countries – and dominated by China – last year is expected to retreat to 69% this decade, according to Edinburgh-based, Verisk-owned WoodMac.

By that point, Europe will have cornered more than 20% of the world market, according to the analyst, although Chinese giant Catl – Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Ltd – will continue to lead, provided it follows through on plans for more than 800GWh of manufacturing capacity. South Korean rival LG has stated plans for around 450GWh of factories by 2030, according to WoodMac, with Japanese brand Panasonic expected to be the world’s third largest battery maker by that point, with annual production capacity of 300GWh.

A graphic issued by WoodMac, compiled from existing factory capacity and new project announcements, had Northvolt as the biggest European battery maker in 2030, with 150GWh of production capacity, and Farasis as North America’s sole representative, with around 125GWh of lines, although the Californian company plans to reach that milestone in 2025.

The analyst said NCM batteries retained half of the global battery market last year.