Wood Mackenzie this week made a slew of predictions for the industry in 2022 and noted the effects the US’ recently announced anti-circumvention investigation is already having on utility scale plans.
Capital costs for 100 MWdc solar projects are set to rise 6% this year, according to one analyst.
The world will pass a terrawatt of solar generation capacity this year, the Edinburgh-based company added, and North America will see its share of the world’s new solar capacity double from the 11% recorded last year.
It was not clear from the note whether the project capital cost rise predicted would apply solely to the US.
The analyst said it had observed a “substantial amount of [solar] module volumes for utility scale projects” postponed after Californian manufacturer Auxin Solar in February lodged an anti-circumvention petition to the authorities.
Auxin has claimed Chinese companies are manufacturing products on home soil and only putting the final touches to them in Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia before labeling them as made in the latter-named nations to get around US anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
An anti-circumvention investigation is under way and Wood Mackenzie said the development is also prompting some manufacturers to shift “importer of record” responsibility onto panel buyers.
Rising solar costs will be partially offset by plans to add, this year, production lines sufficient to produce an extra 200,000 metric tons of polysilicon per year, plus 1 GW more cells, 1 GW more wafers, and 500 MW more modules.